GBPUSD Insight
British Pound/U.S. Dollar FX:GBPUSD
shawntime_academy
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This week, the ISM Manufacturing Index from the U.S. indicated a contraction in the manufacturing sector, while the JOLTS data released by the U.S. Department of Labor the day before also showed signs of a cooling labor market. This has fueled expectations of a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and FedWatch has reflected a 45% probability of a 50bps rate cut.
Meanwhile, Bank of England Governor Bailey recently mentioned that it is too early to declare victory, but the risk of persistent price pressures seems to be retreating, which has led to expectations of a rate cut in September.
September 6: U.S. August Non-farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate will be released.
September 9: Japan's Q2 GDP will be released.
September 10: Germany's August Consumer Price Index will be released.
September 11: UK's July GDP and U.S. August Consumer Price Index will be released.
September 12: ECB interest rate decision and U.S. August Producer Price Index will be released.
GBP/USD has maintained an upward trend but met resistance around the 1.32600 level, causing a slight pullback. The pair is struggling to establish a clear direction near the trendline. If the decline continues, a bottom is expected to form near the 1.29000 level, while a rise would likely push the pair toward the 1.35500 level.
If the decline turns out to be stronger than expected, I will adjust the strategy accordingly.
